GARY Rowett thinks Burton Albion will have to win five of their remaining six games to be sure of sealing automatic promotion from League Two.
The Brewers boss is still confident his side has what it takes to grind out a total of 78 to 80 points which he thinks will be needed to grab third spot.
Albion are currently fifth with 65 points, five points behind Chesterfield in third.
But they are yet to play the Spireites at the Pirelli Stadium, and also face a couple of sides – Newport and Hartlepool – who could have little left to play for when the games come around.
“I think realistically we need to win five of them to be sure of getting promoted automatically,” said the Brewers chief, who is still focused on climbing into that top three.
“That could be four if we beat Chesterfield. I still stand by my target of 78 to 80 points for promotion and 70 for the play-offs.”
Rather than playing against six teams in the run-in, Rowett sees Burton’s scenario as playing against a points tally as the season counts down to its finale.
All that matters is the points which come. Who they come against – and how – is almost irrelevant.
“We’re playing against points, rather than other teams at this stage,” said the manager. “How we get them doesn’t matter.
“We’re capable of doing it - we’re a hard team to beat.
“Now it’s about turning these draws into wins.
“I can reassure people we’re still looking above us (in the table).
“Of course, I’d like to be 10 points clear at the top, but we need to temper our thoughts with a dose of realism.
“In the season after reaching the play-offs, we’re in with a shout of automatic promotion with six games left of the season.
“It’s within our power.
“We’ve got to keep trying to win games and see where we end up.”